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Research on inland river intermodal network design investments within an uncertain demand environment

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需求不确定条件下内河多式联运网络投资优化

Journal Information

J. Hefei Univ. Tech. (Nat. Sci.), Oct.2024, Vol.47 No.10: 1388-1395

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-5060.2024.10.015

Authors

LI Xixi, GUO Liquan, LONG Jiancheng

(School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

Abstract and Keywords

Abstract: The problem of inland river intermodal network design investments within an uncertain demand environment is studied to determine the scale and timing of investment and expansion of inland river ports and waterways on the network. Firstly, the network design investment within deterministic demand (NDIDD) model is established. Then, according to real options theory, the network design investment within uncertain demand (NDIUD) model is proposed. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis-based descent and least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithms are designed to solve the NDIDD and NDIUD models, respectively. Finally, a case study on the inland river intermodal network of the Yangtze River is conducted to verify the models and algorithms. The results of the case study show that the models can simulate the investment decision process and the algorithms can solve the models effectively.

Keywords: uncertain decision; network design; inland river intermodal network; real options

作者信息

李茜茜，郭利泉，龙建成

(合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院，安徽合肥230009)

摘要和关键词

摘要: 文章研究需求不确定条件下内河多式联运网络的投资优化问题, 以确定网络上内河港口、航道投资扩建规模和时机。首先构建确定性需求下内河多式联运网络投资优化模型, 并结合实物期权理论, 提出不确定性需求下内河多式联运网络投资优化模型; 其次分别设计求解确定性需求下内河多式联运网络投资优化模型的灵敏度分析下降算法、不确定性需求下内河多式联运网络投资优化模型的最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟算法; 最后在长江内河多式联运网络上开展实证算例研究, 以验证模型和算法的有效性和实用性。案例结果表明, 模型可有效模拟投资决策过程, 且设计算法可高效求解模型。

关键词: 不确定决策；网络设计；内河多式联运网络；实物期权

Funding

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（JZ2023HGTB0287）

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