A study of inventory problem for probabilistic selling with return

Journal Information

J. Hefei Univ. Tech. (Nat. Sci.), Feb.2023, Vol.46 No.2: 280-284

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-5060.2023.02.021

Authors

WU Qianqian $ ^{1} $, ZHAO Huihui $ ^{1} $, HAO Jingjing $ ^{2} $

(1. School of Mathematics, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China; 2. School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China)

Abstract and Keywords

Abstract: Nowadays, sellers not only need to make optimal decisions to conquer the demand uncertainty, but also need to consider the returning of goods when facing inventory problems in selling. From retailers' point of view, this paper adopts probabilistic selling with Bayesian information updating to obtain mathematical models for inventory and expected profit, then analyzes the impact of return rate on the inventory management level through numerical simulations. The results show that retailers' expected profit decreases when the return rate of goods increases. However, an introduction of Bayesian information updating and a raise of switching rate for probabilistic goods can reduce the loss caused by refund.

Keywords: inventory management; probabilistic selling; Bayesian information updating; return rate; newsvendor model

作者信息

吴茜茜 $ ^{1} $，赵慧慧 $ ^{1} $，郝晶晶 $ ^{2} $

(1. 合肥工业大学数学学院，安徽合肥 230601；2. 合肥工业大学经济学院，安徽合肥 230601)

摘要和关键词

摘要: 在现在产品的销售过程中，销售商在面临库存问题时，除了要考虑制定最优的决策以满足需求量，还需重视退货的问题。文章从销售商的角度出发，针对产品需求量不确定的情况下，采用概率销售策略；应用贝叶斯信息更新方法获取库存量和期望利润的模型，根据数值分析观察顾客的退货率对库存管理水平的影响。研究结果表明，随着产品退货率的上升，销售商的期望利润会下降，但贝叶斯信息更新方法的引入和概率产品转换率的提高可以减少退货所带来的损失。

关键词: 库存管理；概率销售；贝叶斯信息更新；退货率；报童模型

Funding

国家自然科学基金资助项目（11601113）；安徽省自然科学基金资助项目（1708085AQ04）

合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版)

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