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基于 LMDI-STIRPAT 模型的 安徽省水泥行业碳排放预测与分析

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Prediction and analysis of carbon emissions of cement industry in Anhui Province based on LMDI-STIRPAT model

期刊信息

合肥工业大学（自然科学版），2025年12月，第48卷第12期：1591-1597

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-5060.2025.12.002

作者信息

王甫 $ ^{1} $，许子牧 $ ^{1} $，聂磊 $ ^{2} $，胡淑恒 $ ^{1} $，吴为 $ ^{2} $

(1. 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院，安徽合肥 230009；2. 安徽省工程咨询研究院，安徽合肥 230051)

摘要和关键词

摘要: 水泥行业是工业碳排放的主要来源之一,我国是目前世界水泥产量最大的国家,探究水泥碳减排对实现碳达峰、碳中和目标至关重要。文章以安徽省为例,采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)碳排放系数法计算安徽省水泥行业2010—2021年的碳排放量,并通过构建对数平均迪氏指数法(log-mean Divisia index, LMDI)因素分解模型分析安徽省水泥行业碳排放的主要影响因素。同时,对随机性的环境影响评估(stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology, STIRPAT)模型进行扩展,设定基准、低碳和强化低碳3种情景,建立安徽省水泥行业碳排放预测模型,预测不同情景下碳排放量和趋势。结果表明:安徽省水泥行业碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,且煤炭消耗量占比较大,节能减排面临较大压力;能源强度和劳动生产率是对安徽省碳排放影响最显著的因子;在基准、低碳和强化低碳情景下,安徽省水泥行业的碳排放峰值年分别为2030年之后、2025年和2023年。

关键词: 碳排放；碳达峰；对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）模型；随机性的环境影响评估（STIRPAT）模型；水泥行业

Authors

WANG Fu $ ^{1} $, XU Zimu $ ^{1} $, NIE Lei $ ^{2} $, HU Shuheng $ ^{1} $, WU Wei $ ^{2} $

(1. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; 2. Anhui Engineering Consulting Institute, Hefei 230051, China)

Abstract and Keywords

Abstract: The cement industry is one of the main sources of industrial carbon emissions. China is currently the world's largest producer of cement, and exploring carbon emission reduction in the cement industry is crucial to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Taking Anhui Province as an example, this paper calculated the carbon emissions of the cement industry in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021 by using the carbon emission coefficient method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By constructing log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) factor decomposition model, the main factors influencing the carbon emissions of the cement industry in Anhui Province were analyzed. At the same time, the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model was extended. Three scenarios of baseline, low carbon and enhanced low carbon were set up, and the carbon emission prediction model of the cement industry in Anhui Province was established to predict the carbon emissions and trend under different scenarios. The results show that the carbon emissions of the cement industry in Anhui Province are on the rise, with coal consumption accounting for a large proportion, thereby presenting greater pressure for energy saving and emission reduction.

Keywords: carbon emissions; carbon peak; log-mean Divisia index(LMDI) model; stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology(STIRPAT) model; cement industry

基金信息

国家自然科学基金资助项目（32170183）；安徽省重点领域能效核查工作资助项目（2023BFAFZ01442）

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