安徽省淮北平原浅层地下水时空演变特征及降水驱动分析

气候变化及人类活动已引发全球范围内地下水系统的深刻改变，研究地下水时空变化规律及其影响因素对于地下水资源管理和保护具有重要意义。文章基于安徽省淮北平原165眼浅层地下水监测井1974—2020年水位埋深数据，采用线性倾向率、Sen斜率估计、M-K检验和克里金插值等方法分析地下水埋深时空变化特征，利用Kendall’s秩相关法分析降水量与地下水埋深之间关系，使用地理探测器分析降水量变化对地下水埋深空间分布的影响程度。结果表明：在1974—2020年间，受降水量减少、开采量增加、下垫面改变等因素综合影响，研究区浅层地下水埋深总体呈增加趋势，每10年增加$0.12\mathrm{m}$ ；浅层地下水埋深变化趋势“有增有减”，呈现出显著的空间分异性，其中，埋深显著增加、不显著增加、基本不变、不显著减少和显著减少的面积分别占 $33.4\%$ 、 $35.1\%$ 、 $20.2\%$ 、 $5.6\%$ 、 $5.7\%$ ；浅层地下水埋深的空间分布特征是自淮北平原西北向东南方向逐渐减小；降水是影响研究区浅层地下水埋深时空变化的最主要驱动因素，对浅层地下水埋深的时空变化影响十分显著，二者呈负相关关系。该研究结果揭示了淮北平原浅层地下水埋深时空格局、演变趋势以及降水对其的影响程度，为区域地下水资源管理和保护提供了科学依据。

Climate change and human activities have caused profound changes in groundwater systems worldwide. Studying the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of groundwater changes is of great significance for groundwater resource management and protection. Based on the water level depth data of 165 shallow groundwater monitoring wells in the Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province from 1974 to 2020, linear trend rate, Sen slope estimation, M-K test, and Kriging interpolation methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of groundwater depth. Kendall’s rank correlation method was used to analyze the relationship between precipitation and groundwater depth, and GeoDetector was used to analyze the impact of precipitation changes on the spatial distribution of groundwater depth. The results show that from 1974 to 2020, the shallow groundwater depth in the study area shows an overall increasing trend, with an increase of $0.12\mathrm{m}$ per decade, due to the combined effects of the reduction of precipitation, the increase of mining output, and the change of underlying surface. The trend of shallow groundwater depth changes shows significant spatial differentiation, with both increases and decreases. Specifically, significant increases, non-significant increases, basic stability, non-significant decreases, and significant decreases account for $33.4\%$ , $35.1\%$ , $20.2\%$ , $5.6\%$ , and $5.7\%$ of the area, respectively. The spatial distribution characteristics of shallow groundwater depth gradually decrease from northwest to southeast in the Huaibei Plain. Precipitation is the main driving factor affecting the spatiotemporal variation of shallow groundwater depth in the study area, and has a significant impact on the spatiotemporal variation of shallow groundwater depth, with a negative correlation between the two. The study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns, evolution trends, and the impact of precipitation on the shallow groundwater depth in the Huaibei Plain, providing a scientific basis for regional groundwater resource management and protection.