考虑汽油价格的燃油小汽车使用者出行方式选择

为探究汽油价格对燃油小汽车使用者出行方式选择行为的影响,文章综合考虑心理潜变量、个人社会经济属性、出行特征属性、出行方式属性的影响,基于获取的出行选择数据,分别构建不考虑潜变量的混合Logit模型和考虑潜变量的混合选择模型。研究结果表明:考虑潜变量的混合选择模型的拟合效果优于不考虑潜变量的混合Logit模型;在不考虑潜变量的混合Logit模型中,出行者收入越高、出行距离越远、拥有2辆以上小汽车及女性出行者更愿意选择小汽车出行,公共交通服务水平越好则燃油小汽车使用者越愿意选择公共交通出行;在考虑潜变量的混合选择模型中,除学历和收入外,潜变量对燃油小汽车使用者出行选择也存在显著影响,同时汽油价格越高、公共交通服务水平越高,燃油小汽车使用者选择公共交通出行的概率越高。

In order to explore the impact of gasoline price on the travel mode choice behavior of gasoline car users, this paper considers the influence of psychological latent variables, personal socioeconomic attributes, travel characteristic attributes and travel mode attributes, and constructs a Mixed Logit (ML) model without considering latent variables and a hybrid choice model considering latent variables based on the obtained travel choice data. Results indicate that the hybrid choice model fits better than the ML model. The ML model results indicate that the travelers who have higher income, travel farther and own more than two cars as well as the female travelers are more willing to travel by car. The gasoline car users are willing to switch to public transport when a higher level of service (LOS) of public transport is available. According to the results of hybrid choice model, in addition to education and income, latent variables also have significant influence on the travel choice of gasoline car users. Meanwhile, the higher the gasoline price and the LOS of public transport, the higher the probability that gasoline car users will choose public transport.