基于 TCR 模型的台风极值降雨强度预测

近些年台风带来的强降雨与洪水灾害给沿海城市造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡, 极端降雨环境多数是在台风作用下产生的, 且极值降雨强度是城市防洪排涝、排水规划和工程设计的雨量计算依据。为更加合理准确地预测极值降雨, 文章引入热带气旋降雨(tropical cyclone rainfall, TCR)模型, 利用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)技术模拟香港地区的极值降雨强度。对比相关规范与历史数据, 该方法能较好地预测极值降雨强度, 为后续台风降雨灾害危险性分析和排水工程建设研究提供一定的参考。

In recent years, heavy rainfall and flood disasters brought by typhoons have caused serious economic losses and casualties to coastal cities. Most extreme rainfall environments are generated under the action of typhoons, and the extreme rainfall intensity is the rainfall calculation basis for urban flood control and drainage, drainage planning and engineering design. In order to predict the extreme rainfall more reasonably and accurately, this paper introduces the tropical cyclone rainfall (TCR) model and simulates the extreme rainfall intensity in Hong Kong by Monte Carlo technique. Compared with the relevant norms and historical data, this method can better predict the extreme rainfall intensity, and provide reference for the subsequent typhoon rainfall hazard analysis and drainage engineering construction research.