考虑退货影响的概率销售下的库存问题研究

在现在产品的销售过程中，销售商在面临库存问题时，除了要考虑制定最优的决策以满足需求量，还需重视退货的问题。文章从销售商的角度出发，针对产品需求量不确定的情况下，采用概率销售策略；应用贝叶斯信息更新方法获取库存量和期望利润的模型，根据数值分析观察顾客的退货率对库存管理水平的影响。研究结果表明，随着产品退货率的上升，销售商的期望利润会下降，但贝叶斯信息更新方法的引入和概率产品转换率的提高可以减少退货所带来的损失。

Nowadays, sellers not only need to make optimal decisions to conquer the demand uncertainty, but also need to consider the returning of goods when facing inventory problems in selling. From retailers' point of view, this paper adopts probabilistic selling with Bayesian information updating to obtain mathematical models for inventory and expected profit, then analyzes the impact of return rate on the inventory management level through numerical simulations. The results show that retailers' expected profit decreases when the return rate of goods increases. However, an introduction of Bayesian information updating and a raise of switching rate for probabilistic goods can reduce the loss caused by refund.